Briefly discuss the effectiveness of different campaigning methods based on your knowledge of political science research.
Based on political science research, the most effective means of increasing turnout is having face-to-face contact with voters. This is makes having an effective ground game critical, even in the age of social media. Candidate visits are also an effective method of increasing turnout; they allow the candidate to have direct contact with voters as well as generate local press coverage. Targeted mailing is another effective method at increasing turnout, although political science research shows it to be less effective that direct contact with voters. Campaign ads are a critical element to campaigns, especially larger ones; this tactic is effective, but it tends to increase support for a candidate only for a limited amount of time. Thus, if a campaign is to engage in ad buys, it must either do so for a sustained period of time or limit its purchases to the last couple of weeks of the campaign. Finally, of all the campaign methods available to candidates, political science research shows that phone banking is the least effective method.
What was a primary reason that President Truman used in deciding to use the atomic bomb against Japan at the end of World War Two?
The principle concern that President Truman had when making his decision to use the atomic bomb was that of American lives. Projections of casualties resulting from an invasion of the Japanese mainland, the alternative to dropping the atomic bomb, were over 100,000 troops in the first wave alone. President Truman had little reason doubt that an invasion of the Japanese islands would result in an intolerable loss of American life; the Japanese fought viciously on Iwo Jima and in Okinawa, where US forces suffered roughly 26,000 and 50,000 casualties, respectively. Additionally, the use of kamikazes indicated a fanaticism was descending upon Japanese forces as the prospect of defeat grew on them. The Japanese also signaled that they intended to have every man, woman, and child fight in defense of the Japanese home islands, providing fierce resistance to any invading American force. Thus, in an effort to save American lives, President Truman decided to use the atomic bomb and brign the war to a swift conclusion.
Name and explain three important factors that will influence crude oil prices over the next year.
The global supply of oil, an ever critical element influencing crude oil prices, will continue to affect prices over the next year. OPEC and certain non-OPEC members (most importantly Russia) decided to extend production cuts into early 2018 at their meeting in late May last year. All things equal, this will put upward pressure on oil prices; however, North American oil production has been accelerating faster than expected, largely thwarting OPEC's efforts to materially reduce global crude oil inventories. If North American production continues to increase at a rapid pace, OPEC's efforts to reduce global supply will not be enough to create upward price pressure, as the global supply glut will continue. The marginal cost of production, which affects global supply, will be another important influence on oil prices over the next year. After the Saudis flooded global oil markets back in 2015, many North American producers were forced out of business as oil prices tanked. These same producers have now come back with abilities to produce oil at even lower costs, lowering the price per barrel of oil needed to turn a profit. This alone is the primary reason oil production has surged in North America, ruining OPEC's efforts to bring prices back up. Finally, global oil demand will be a critical element to crude oil prices over the next year. If demand does not accelerate, prices will continue to languish as production continues to increase. Developing countries, such as India, will be key sources of demand growth over the next year. Oil prices will largely be determined by the strength of demand across the globe.